Signals

Clues to emerging futures: anomalies, trends, contradictions, hacks, extremes, and weak signals the chapter identifies in the present.

ContradictionNov 2026
Mexico declared an emergency cement standard, citing 576 thousand tons a year from firms outside the regulatory framework, but it will not be enforceable until certifiers exist
On November 2, 2026, the Secretaría de Economía (Economy Ministry) published in the DOF (Mexico's federal gazette) the Norma Oficial Mexicana de Emergencia (emergency official Mexican standard) NOM-EM-023-SE-2026 for hydraulic cements, signed on October 26 and in force as of the following business day. Its recitals invoke article 31 of the Ley de Infraestructura de la Calidad (Quality Infrastructure Law), which reserves emergency standards for preventing imminent harm or mitigating existing harm, and state that uncertified cement produces low compressive strength and "high risk for people". The only figure for harm they quantify comes, according to the text itself, from "information obtained by the legally established cement industry": at least 576,000 tons a year in the hands of companies outside the regulatory framework, with an impact on the industry of 3,000 million pesos a year; they add that the amount may increase by another 2,800 million due to imported cement, based on "evidence" they do not identify, for about 5,800 million a year. The text declares it "essential to shield the formal market". The standard lasts six months, renewable only once, and its first transitory article declares it not enforceable "until there are sufficient Conformity Assessment Bodies, accredited and approved".
Ciudad & Sistemas Vivos
ContradictionNov 2026
Japan requires shippers moving over 90 thousand tons a year to appoint a logistics director and plan how to cut drivers' waiting time; Mexico's NOM-087 does not name the shipper
In April 2026 the second phase of Japan's amended logistics efficiency law took effect: every shipper that moved more than 90,000 tons in the previous fiscal year is designated a specified shipper, must appoint a logistics director—failure to do so is punishable by a fine—and must submit a medium- and long-term plan, updated every year, to make better use of each truck's load and reduce drivers' waiting and handling times. Reducing waiting is a best-efforts duty that becomes an order only if the government deems the measures insufficient. The first plan was due on October 31, 2026, and starting in July 2027 shippers must periodically report measured waiting times. In Mexico, NOM-087-SCT-2-2017 (an official Mexican standard), in force, regulates driving times and breaks: it counts loading and unloading as auxiliary activities of the driver and binds only the driver and the permit holder—which may be a shipper with its own fleet—not whoever hires a third party to haul its freight; the words "user" ("usuario"), "sender" ("remitente") and "waiting" ("espera") do not appear in its text. The draft that would replace it, published in October 2024, does not mention the shipper either and has not been published as a final standard.
Innovación & Negocios
AnomalyNov 2026
CONOCER (job skills council) approved eight AI standards certifying trades such as prompt developer that the standards themselves say are not in the official classification
On October 28, 2026, the DOF (Mexico's federal gazette) published the agreement of the Technical Committee of the Consejo Nacional de Normalización y Certificación de Competencias Laborales (CONOCER, the national council for job skills standards and certification), approved on September 24, that registers 71 competency standards: 61 with an EC code—54 new ones, from EC1830 to EC1883, and seven updates—and ten with an ECM code, among them "Cloud services with Huawei tools". Eight of the 71 are on artificial intelligence, seven of them aimed at micro, small and medium-sized enterprises. Seven of those eight include a section on occupations "not contained in the Sistema Nacional de Clasificación de Ocupaciones" (Mexico's national occupational classification system), which lists "AI Prompt Developer", "AI Consultant for MSMEs" and "Digital Content Creator with AI". Two of them name commercial tools—ChatGPT, Gemini, Copilot, Midjourney, Freepik—"or equivalents", and seven of the eight suggest being reviewed every two years.
Tecnologías Emergentes
ContradictionNov 2026
Mexico lets altruistically donated plasma be transferred to private fractionators in exchange for medicines; plasma may "under no circumstances" be collected for industry
On November 2, 2026, the Secretaría de Salud (Health Ministry) published in the DOF (Mexico's federal gazette) the guidelines for the disposition of residual plasma, which take effect thirty business days later and regulate the January 2026 amendment to the Ley General de Salud (General Health Law). They allow a public blood bank, through an agreement, or a private one, through a contract, to deliver the plasma left over from donations to a legal entity that manufactures plasma-derived products in exchange for "the in-kind benefit obtained from its disposition": the agreement sets the medicines and "the quantity to be returned based on the volume of residual plasma delivered". The plasma "shall not be exchanged for economic remuneration", and the donor's consent must state that it may be industrialized "on a non-profit basis by the Blood bank that obtains them". The medicines return through hospital pharmacies whose licenses must include "the line of sale or supply" of plasma-derived products. At the same time, article 7 provides that "under no circumstances" shall donations be promoted, "including exclusive plasma donation by apheresis, for specific industrialization purposes".
Innovación & Negocios
AnomalyNov 2026
Men's labor participation fell to 73.0% in September 2026, 2.4 points in a year, while IMSS (Mexico's social security institute) reported its highest formal employment on record
On October 22, 2026, INEGI (Mexico's national statistics institute) published the September Encuesta Nacional de Ocupación y Empleo (ENOE, National Occupation and Employment Survey): the male economic participation rate was 73.0%, compared with 75.4% in September 2025 and 2024, 76.0% in 2023, 75.7% in 2022 and 75.2% in 2021. The male population aged 15 and over grew by 422,720 people over the year, but employed men fell by 845 thousand and those who report being unavailable to work rose by 1,108,890. In the same period, employed women increased by 578 thousand and the male unemployment rate held at 2.9%. The monthly series is volatile: in August 2025 the male rate had already fallen 2.0 points and recovered the following month, and in August 2026 it was 74.4%, compared with 74.3% a year earlier. For the same month, IMSS (Mexico's social security institute) reported 22,927,276 registered jobs, 355,594 more than a year earlier, the highest figure on its record; of that increase, 81,630 correspond to digital platform workers.
Cultura & Sociedad
Weak signalNov 2026
The national child protection system dissolved its commission on adoptions, foster care and migrant children, which had not met since 2018, without naming who assumes its mandate
On November 2, 2026, the DOF (Mexico's federal gazette) published the agreement by which the Sistema Nacional de Protección Integral de Niñas, Niños y Adolescentes (SIPINNA, the national system for the comprehensive protection of children and adolescents) dissolved its Comisión de Protección Especial (CPENNA, Special Protection Commission), created in August 2016 as a permanent body to define national special protection policy, with seven working groups: legal representation, adoptions, foster families, restitution of rights, regulation of social assistance centers, migrant children and outreach. According to the agreement itself, the commission met three times—November 2016, May 2017 and February 2018—, its reinstallation scheduled for December 6, 2019 never took place, and it has remained inactive since then. The dissolution is justified "since the conditions that gave rise to the mandate for creating this Commission have disappeared" and by the prolonged interruption of its work. It was approved on December 15, 2025, at SIPINNA's First Ordinary Session of that year; article 128 of the general law on the subject requires the System to meet "at least twice a year". The notice does not name any body to take over the mandate.
Cultura & Sociedad
ContradictionNov 2026
Hacienda (Finance Ministry) requires each infrastructure-law progress certificate to be "irrevocable" and "unconditional" even if the contract is voided, and says it is not debt
On October 7, 2026, the Secretaría de Hacienda (Finance Ministry) published in the DOF (Mexico's federal gazette) the Lineamientos en materia de proyectos de infraestructura estratégica para el desarrollo con bienestar (Guidelines on strategic infrastructure projects for development with well-being), which operationalize the 2026 law that allows contracts of 4 to 40 years with deferred payments. Their section 7.4.3 requires each Constancia de Avance de Servicios de Inversión (CASI, Investment Services Progress Certificate) to contain "the express declaration by the Contracting Party that the payment obligation (...) is valid, enforceable, irrevocable, unconditional and not subject to any set-off or deduction after its issuance, even in the event that the Contract is declared null for any reason". The same guidelines define the monetization of the certificates, "including securitization, assignment and/or purchase-and-sale transactions". At the same time, they establish that the certificates "do not constitute debt instruments of the Federal Government", and their recitals conclude that the deferred payments "do not constitute public debt" and that the Cámara de Diputados (Chamber of Deputies) retains the exclusive power to approve each year the allocations to cover them.
Futuros
ContradictionNov 2026
In 2025 the Supreme Court annulled at least 17 municipal revenue laws with charges on power plants, substations and gas; in 2026 two more municipalities included the same charges
On October 28 and 29, 2026, the DOF (Mexico's federal gazette) published two Supreme Court rulings against 2026 municipal revenue laws, both brought by the Federal Executive: constitutional controversy 178/2026 (a suit between levels or branches of government), decided on August 4, annulled the charges of Zaragoza, San Luis Potosí, for land-use licenses on electrical substations, transformers, high-voltage lines, generating facilities and railways; 85/2026, decided on July 6, annulled those of Jiménez, Coahuila, on power plants and hydrocarbon facilities. The two rulings cite as precedents at least 17 controversies decided between September 17 and December 8, 2025 against identical charges in that year's revenue laws: 14 from municipalities in Coahuila, two from Chihuahua and one from Zacatecas; the Jiménez ruling also cites 31 controversies from 2024 against charges by Coahuila municipalities on hydrocarbon well permits. The Court holds that municipal powers under article 115 (the constitutional article on municipalities) over land use and licenses "are not absolute" and do not extend to the "authorization, regulation or specific charge" on that infrastructure. In the Zaragoza case, the congress and government of San Luis Potosí defended the charge as a municipal service; the Senate and the Cámara de Diputados (lower house of Congress), as interested third parties, asked that the Executive's claim be declared well-founded.
Ciudad & Sistemas Vivos

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